[IMC-Editorial] Iraq - Another Vietnam? article

[Peter Tatchell]

Hi IndyMedia,

Iraq War - A Vietnam-style debacle?

Could I please offer this article for publication on your website?
Regardless of whether I am right or wrong, I think this is a perspective
that merits debate.

I am a leading British anti-war, gay and human rights campaigner.

www.petertatchell.net

You can also see references to my campaigns by going the The Guardian
newspaper website and inputting my name into the search facility

www.guardian.co.uk

Please advise if you want to post the article.

Warmest regards and solidarity!  Peter Tatchell

Iraq: A Vietnam-style debacle?

Peter Tatchell warns that western forces could get bogged down in a long,
bloody guerrilla war

The war in Iraq will be over in a week. This is what military chiefs and
media pundits told us just four weeks ago. The hi-tech, professional US and
UK forces would overwhelm Saddam Hussein's underpaid, poorly armed and
disaffected troops. Blasted by "shock and awe", most would surrender without
a fight. Mass defections would start on day one, followed by total collapse
within a week.
  That is what the White House and Downing Street wanted the world to
believe, in order to win over a sceptical public. Gulf War 2 will, they
said, be quick, precision-targeted and virtually bloodless, with few
military or civilian casualties.
  Early predictions that Baghdad would fall within seven days have proven to
be reckless and downright delusional.
  Six months ago, I warned that resistance would be stronger than expected.
The Iraqi people are fiercely nationalistic. Many have a stake in Saddam's
regime through jobs and other forms of patronage. They will lose
everything - even their lives - if Saddam is deposed. Most will fight to the
death.
  So far, my warnings have been closer to the reality of the battlefield
than the wild optimism of the Pentagon. I am no military expert, just
someone with a bit of common sense and a basic knowledge of military
history. Having studied the US debacle in Vietnam, it seems likely that
Operation Iraqi Freedom may several months - and possibly years.
  Saddam is evil but not stupid. He has learned lessons from Gulf War 1. His
troops will avoid big battles in the open desert, where they are vulnerable
to allied air strikes. Iraqi generals are unlikely to repeat the 1991
military disaster on the Basra road, where whole divisions were blown to
pieces by US bombers.
  Instead, Saddam is concentrating his troops in the cities, using the
civilian population as human shields. Military deployments and tactics in
the south around Basra and further north around Najaf indicate this is
Saddam's strategy. Modelling his tactics on those of the Vietnamese NLF in
the 1960s, he seems intent on fighting an irregular war with small, mobile,
covert units of his Fedayeen militia and Republican Guard. Organised into
terrorist-like cells, their aim is to draw western troops into the cities
where they can be picked off by sniping, mines, booby-traps and car-bombs.
It could be like Berlin in 1945 or Belfast in 1972 - only 10,000 times
worse.
  Many of Saddam's troops have already gone to ground, discarding their
uniforms and passing off themselves as civilians. We have seen this in Umm
Qasr and other Iraqi towns. Their tactics are to fight an asymmetrical war
with no big weapons and no set piece battles. Defeating this shadowy,
invisible enemy in unfamiliar terrain will be very  difficult for US and UK
troops.
  It is highly probable that allied soldiers will have to flush out Saddam's
forces in house-to-house street fighting. Are we ready for the prospect of
our servicemen and women coming home in body bags for months and perhaps
years?
  Even if Baghdad is taken relatively easily, British and American troops
may not kill or capture all the enemy. Saddam's fighters could simply slip
away and later regroup to fight another day. The Iraqi leader's strategy may
be to avoid a last ditch stand and switch instead to a rearguard terrorist
campaign against the armies of occupation.
  In this scenario, our forces will have to remain in Iraq for at least
three years to maintain control and prevent counter-attacks by Saddam
loyalists. Keeping the peace might not be easy. Guerrilla units could wage
prolonged hit-and-run terror attacks on allied patrols, blending back into
the civilian population after lightening strikes.
  If a mere 200 IRA volunteers can wreck havoc in Northern Ireland for 30
years, despite the presence of 20,000 British troops, imagine what Saddam's
die hard loyalists can do. He has 80,000 Republican Guards, 20,000 Special
Republican Guards and 30,000 Fedayeen militiamen. These are
terrorist-trained fanatics, willing to die for Saddam.
  To combat an Iraqi guerrilla campaign, the occupying US and UK forces
would be bound to adopt tough counter-insurgency measures, including
checkpoints, house searches, curfews, roadblocks, military courts,
internment without trial, assassination,  and possibly the torture of
detainees, as happened in Vietnam. This crackdown is bound to provoke anger
and violent protests by the Iraqi people. How will our troops respond? With
CS gas, rubber bullets and baton charges? Or with live rounds?
  This is the point where allied tactics might start to seriously backfire.
To sustain a change of regime in Iraq, we need support of the Iraqi people.
Right now, only a minority favour western invasion. Although they hate
Saddam, most are also against a US and UK attack. They see civilians
suffering and dislike the neo-imperial  connotations of an allied
'liberation' where they are treated like pawns, with no say or control over
their own destiny.
  Saddam is successfully exploiting this nationalist sentiment. By playing
the patriotic card against America and Britain, he is deflecting opposition
to his regime. So far, there have been none of the huge crowds that western
analysts said would greet the advancing allied armies. High civilian
casualties as the war progresses, followed by heavy repression in the name
of peace-keeping, will inflame nationalist passions and provoke increasing
Iraqi hostility towards allied forces. A US and UK occupation could become a
Vietnam-style fiasco, where we lose the hearts and minds of the civilian
population, resulting in growing popular resentment and eventual outright
rebellion.
  Gulf War 2 will eventually get rid of Saddam. But at what price? Could we
now be sowing the seeds of Gulf War 3: a national liberation war by the
Iraqi people against the occupying armies of Britain and America?

* Peter Tatchell is a leading British anti-war, gay and human rights
campaigner, and the author of Democratic Defence (Heretic Books/GMP, London,
1985) www.petertatchell.net

ENDS